I love statistics!

If you want to gorge yourself on stats there’s some pretty awesome stuff over at Sky Sports. For example, Clichy is the EPL’s 2nd leading passer and led the league in intercepted passes. Flamini was third in the EPL in passing and had an astounding completion rate of 87%. Or how about the fact that Kevin Davies (of Bolton) is the worst fouler in the league?  I could keep going but I’ll spare you.

I will mention that The Guardian must have purchased the Opta sports pack because they provide additional analysis by league, by team, by individual, and by “odds and ends.” Pretty cool stuff, saunter on over there and point out something I didn’t see, I’d love to hear it.

One thing that that I did see is that Howard Webb hates Arsenal and the statistics prove it.

No?

Well, he was the ref in the game at Old Trafford this season. You remember, the one who gave Man U both of their goals through eagle-eyed reffing on one end of the pitch but for some reason turning a blind eye to all the Anderson/Scholes fouling at the other end of the pitch. In that match, the cleanest team in the premier league (with only 407 fouls conceded all season) somehow merited 6 yellow cards on 7 fouls with one penalty kick and another free kick right outside the box. Man U, on the other hand, fouled Arsenal 12 times and received 2 yellow cards. Coincidence?

He’s also the guy who “refereed” the debacle in the Carling Cup final against Chelsea in 2007. You remember… the one where Obi Wan Mikel and Lampard’s continuous fouling led to a Mikel foul on Toure which saw those two square off and then Lampard attacked Toure and when the Arsenal players intervened they were shown red cards. Yeah, that Howard Webb.

But this season, he seems to be going over the top with the Arsenal hate because this term he was the referee in charge for 3/5 of Arsenal’s domestic losses.

I don’t know whether the team plays different when Webb is on the pitch or if his refereeing style encourages a different type of play, or whether it’s just dumb luck. But for some uncanny reason, Howard Webb reffed 3/5 of Arsenal’s losses; in two of which he gave a penalty to the opponents. He also has a penchant for handing out yellow cards in general (more than any other ref) and especially to Arsenal (more than any other ref). Just look at any of the Arsenal matches he reffed this season.

Very strange.

Transfer News (the poop scoop)

I love yesterday’s story about Hleb wanting to be a gentleman and transfer out of Arsenal the proper way. Good for Arsene: the threat of punishment has secured Hleb’s proper valuation. A funny aside to the whole Hleb transfer story is that he has admitted that he doesn’t like London. He says it’s too busy, too noisy, too dirty which is all fine, and fair enough. So, of course it makes sense that he’s trying to get a transfer to Milan; that bucolic little mountain town in Italy.

Patrick Vieira is ramping up his retirement plans by coming out as yet another Arsenal pundit. Dude, if you want to complain about Arsenal’s wage structure and transfer policies, why don’t you do it like everyone else? Get a blog.

In the NOT NEWS section:Adebayor is NOT leaving for Barcelona or joining Hleb at Milan… that’s a relief.

Yaya Toure wants to play for Arsenal. There has NOT been any contact with Yaya or Barca, but it seems like he’s one of the 220 people who keep calling Wenger to see if there’s a roster spot available. I wonder who the other 219 are?

Kroenke himself is buying Hatem Ben Arfa. That’s player number 219, but only if Wenger promises him first team football. Totally, here, you can have, uhhh, erm, uhh Adebayor’s place, NOT.

Gervinho, Kompany, and Makoun are NOT numbers 218, 217, and 216 respectively. Of all those players, Kompany is the kind of player Arsenal need most: especially since Robin van Persie needs some Kompany in the infirmary.  Thank you, I’ll be here all week, try the veal, tip the waitress…

Anyway, that’s your NOT NEWS section for today!

Wait… I checked the news feed after I wrote this and I had 49 news items, let’s see if any are transfer rumors. YEP! Obafemi Martins! Arsenal have definitely NOT approached Newcastle for him. Which doesn’t make any sense since I thought Wenger was collecting strikers, oh well, guess NOT. In other NOT news, Arsenal are NOT linked to Gareth Barry, just as they are NOT linked to signing anyone… really.

Spend it like Beckham

Goodness. The rumor mill is in full effect this morning. Arsenal are slated to sign so many players I can’t even keep track of them all. The one that I found most comical though is Mario Gomez. Yes, Arsenal are going to sign another forward, because as we all know, Arsene collects strikers. I could be wrong. Maybe Wenger will go back on his promise not to collect strikers. Maybe Wenger will see that Adebayor scored 30 goals on an extremely efficient 130 shots and say “not good enough.” Maybe Wenger will see van Persie’s chronic injury record and say “not good enough.” Maybe Wenger will fret over Eduardo’s ability to overcome the mental block that is sure to happen because Martin Taylor broke Eduardo’s leg with a professional foul. Maybe Wenger will see the influx of Randall, Vela, and Theo, and say “not mature enough.” And maybe the boss will get sick of the quiescent Nicholas Bendtner.

Maybe.

But somehow I think not. In those 4 strikers (Ade, RvP, Dudu, and Sleepy) Wenger has the perfect set of strikers for Arsenal. RvP is exactly the kind of sparkle player that Arsenal need and the boss is hopeful that his 16 month run of injuries was just bad luck. Ade terrifies defenses with his huge frame, strength, aerial ability, speed, and nose for goal. Dudu is exactly the kind of goal poacher that Arsenal needed last year and the boss thinks he’s mentally cut from the right kind of cloth to bounce back and take on the Taylor’s of the Premier League again next year. And Sleepy… Well, Sleepy… Ok, he could sell Bendtner and buy a fourth striker.

But that’s the only way Arsenal are buying a striker: these are tight times budget wise, folks. I know that I’ve been beating that drum and you’re probably tired of hearing it, but that there is the facts. Arsenal have somewhere in the realm of £20m pounds to spend thus summer. There will be more cash on hand when Arsenal sell Hleb (which is inevitable in my opinion) but that cash will have to be used to buy a replacement. In fact, the only position that will be strengthened is in defense. Any other purchases will be to fill vacancies.

I don’t expect Arsenal to “spend like the big four” this summer. In fact, I don’t even know what “spend like the big four” means. Does it mean to pile on more debt until you reach £1bn? Does it mean recklessly overpaying for players as some kind of Live Action Fantasy Football team for some dumb rich guy who will then pretend to “clear the books” but in actuality has leveraged debt obligations on the backs of the fans? How about an ownership group that has huge public blowouts, debts that can’t be restructured, a free spending manager, and a rabid fanbase that’s willing to sell the future for a shot at a trophy now?

Or maybe they mean a team that plays the world’s most beautiful football, develops young talent, and actually made a profit off player sales this year?

Nah. The press are only interested in top four clubs like Tottenham; who spend through the nose for untalented hacks. After all, it’s a better story when that team falls flat, isn’t it?

Who will Wenger buy, how much will he spend, will it be a striker, a defender, an old player, a young player, a winger, a tisket, or a tasket? I don’t know, but the boss promises to let us all in on it very soon.

The course is set, the wind is good, unfurl the jib!

I have decided what course the blog will take this summer.  The blog will be the same truculent take on the press, other blogs, pundits, and fans.  I will also “report” on transfer news but only whenever verifiable information can be obtained.  I will continue providing analysis of the “big stuff” like the 39th game proposal, the FA’s conduct program, and the effect of big money in the EPL.  And this year, I will try (TRY is the operative word) to watch some Colorado Rapids games and report on the team a little bit.

Why?

Well, the Rapids are the MLS “sister” team to Arsenal and I often criticize the MLS so I kinda figured I ought to at least watch some of what I criticize.  Besides if it’s football and I watch it, you hear about it — as you no doubt know by now.  The Rapids are currently top of their division and it looks like I might be able to watch my first Rapids game on Thursday at 6:30pm local time. I’m sooo excited…

There will also be a major change of the web site this summer so look for that.

So, sit back and relax — the summer course is set.

Cheers

Theo’s goal, Wenger’s transfers, Flamini’s pain.

Another one-nil Arsenal win, a draw by Chelsea, and Man U’s 2-0 win means that Arsenal finish 2008 in third place; 2 points behind Chelsea and 4 points behind winners Manchester United.

Interestingly, Man U finished the season with a mere 87 points which means that Wenger’s New Year’s prediction that Arsenal needed 90 points to win the title was pretty damn close. At the time, he compared this season’s team to the Invincibles saying that “We had 44 points before Everton, which is one point less than in the unbeaten season when we had 45. So that tells you a lot about the quality of the team.” Upon reflection, he’s been banging this “this team is as good as the invincibles” drum all season and I never really noticed it. You almost have to wonder if that’s how he kept the team’s spirits high all season.

Speaking about his transfer targets he beat that Invincibles drum again:

It doesn’t look like we have no team and we have to build a team. We were unbeaten at home and that is only the second time in the history of the club. We have done that with young players who will be better next season.

What’s fascinating about this whole dialog for me is that if you were to repeat those lines with your casual EPL fan (especially here in America) you’d get derisive laughter. But that’s how close Arsenal were this season and how misinformed your average EPL fan (especially here in America) really is. I had a “Wolves Supporter” tell me today that next year Arsenal need a 20 point lead in order to win the title. Yes, and Arsenal should go out and pick up Henri Camara to do it, right?

Regardless, the season was, in fact, very close. Had the club rescued just a few points that they dropped against lesser quality teams (yes, Birmingham are lesser quality, you saw they made the drop today, right?) Arsenal would have finished exactly where Wenger predicted, 90 points and champions.

But they didn’t rescue those points and they didn’t win the title. They did play beautifully, and they do have a great team in the offing, so now it is time to look forward to next season and what Professor Wenger has in store for the supporters.

Today’s match was a preview of next season of sorts, wasn’t it? Too bad I couldn’t watch it but the match reports said that Theo started and scored the only goal. Good for him, I expect to see him a regular starter next year. Meanwhile, budding French winger Traore and young English winger Mark Randall came on in the second half. Evidently, Randall had a goal disallowed. Not bad for his (Randall) first ever EPL appearance! I can’t wait to see what he does next year in the League Cup.

As for signings, you have no doubt seen by now that Wenger has a “couple” of players targeted: most likely, a tough central defender and a replacement for Flamini in midfield. He’s also saying that he’s willing to pony up the cash for someone with experience in the Premiership. I don’t know how important that will be: Sagna didn’t have any Premiership experience and was voted best Right Back in the league. I do know that buying a Premiership player is a good political move; I hear a lot of fans calling for Micah Richards and signing him would make a lot of people happy. I don’t want to get into speculation about specific players but if I were (ha!) I would suggest that fans not set their hopes on Richards because with his size and ability he plays more like Gallas than like a Ferdinand (which is what Arsenal really need).

If I were to speculate? I’d say Xavi Alonso is coming to Arsenal; he’s Spanish (Wenger likes pairs and Cesc is the lone Spaniard), he’s a tremendously dependable passer, and he’s fallen out of favor at Liverpool. But see, that’s just me speculating, I don’t claim an “inside source” who can tell me, literally moments before the rest of the press, that Arsenal have signed XYZ. I’m just a blogger, like all the other bloggers, no matter how much they claim special access and still get 98% of their predictions wrong. So, why don’t we wait for the dot com to release the news instead of claiming special knowledge, and making crazy predictions like “XAVI TO ARSENAL!!!” eh?

And that leads me to my final blurb: Flamini has spoken out about the “pain” he felt because Arsenal failed to secure the title and how that influenced his decision not to stay. So, he went to AC Milan, who are clearly overflowing with trophies this season. In fact, van Persie, Arsene Wenger, and I all rate Arsenal’s chance at winning silverware higher than Milan’s: van Persie thinks it’ll be 100%. Way to end the season on a high note Robin, now stay healthy and maybe you can be a significant part of that 100%.

So, the season ends and like the fans, some of the players are bitter, some are hurt, and some of us are hopeful.

Where are you?

Oh yeah… there’s a game tomorrow!

In all the excitement over yesterday’s press conference, I totally forgot that there’s a game tomorrow!

It’s not being televised (here in the states) because some shiate is playing some shiate and some other shiate is playing some other shiate for some shiatty title. This kinda sucks because I’ve only missed two games all season (in all competitions) and I really wanted to get a glimpse of the new kids. I’m going to try to sopcast it and if I find a channel that works, I’ll let you all know.

Kickoff is 7am (for the first time in what seems like an ice age) local time and I’ll be heading down to Doyle’s for the festivities (yes, I’ll be rooting for shiate to beat the shiate.) I’ll bring the laptop and maybe a few of us can gather around and watch Arsenal on my laptop. Come on down if you’re in town.

Anyway, I’ll do a post match blog tomorrow. See you then.

2% of all ships have rats

As Alex (one of my loyal readers) scooped yesterday, during the Friday press conference the boss gave a strongly worded defense of his team and team concept.

Clearly tired of all the press speculation the Boss lashed out:

Look, there is one player who is free, he has already left. For me, 98 per cent of the squad will be here next season. And the two per cent have already gone. The rest are all under contract. If anybody wants to buy a player he has to call me. I can give you my number if you want because maybe some ignore that I have a phone. What is unbelievable is I’m sitting here like we have killed all the players. Yet when I go to my office I have 220 calls from players who want to come in.

With that statement we have learned today that 1) Arsene Wenger does have a phone 2) there are 220 players who want a job at Arsenal 3) the squad has 50 players and 2% have left (one guy, Flamini) and 4) Inter either are unable to use a phone (not surprising) or they have forgotten that the country code for England is 44 (maybe they were dialing 33?)

Then he rounded on Flamini and Milan, questioning the character of both.

I know the rules in this job, the guy [Flamster] is free, he can go to somebody who pays him more, but he said he wanted to stay. If you say ‘no I want to go somewhere’ that is ok. But you cannot say ‘I want to stay but I go.’ This club here [Arsenal] has a history of being built by people of values. I’m not sure that in the history of Milan you’ll find the same values, even if you dig well.

Owch. I don’t really blame Milan here. Flamini was a free agent, Milan offered him a bigger contract, and he choose to take it. Flamini is the one here who told the boss one thing and did something different. Which is really, personally, sad. I really liked the guy and thought he showed tremendous character over the last few years; stepping up and doing anything that was asked of him. So, I have to admit that I’m kind of surprised that he did the dirty on the boss like that. Why not just be a man and say “I’m leaving?” I don’t know, it’s really a sad way to leave.

The boss is more forgiving than I am saying;

Still, for me it’s not a problem, I wish him well and say thanks for the services. Let’s go on and focus on what’s important for this Club and the players who want to stay here. There is no bitterness, nothing. He was in a situation where he could make a decision, and he did. Goodbye and good luck. It’s as simple as that. What is important is that a player, when he plays, gives 100 per cent. And when he played for us he gave 100 per cent.

I’m not going to burn my Flamini jersey or cry into a beer over it, but I can’t quite forgive him yet; it was a bit of a cowardly way to leave. I guess I can just try to remember that he was a fully committed player and will be difficult to replace for the qualities that he showed on the pitch. Let’s just hope we get someone in there with better qualities off the pitch.

Speaking of players who are acting poorly off the pitch, the boss has also taken a huge swipe at Hleb and even gone so far as to threaten legal action should the player try to “pull a Webster.”

It is not as simple as it looks, this Webster clause, you can’t just come in next day and buy out, there is no rule that says that. And you should not forget what clubs can do. You have to first go to a FIFA tribunal and if you don’t agree with FIFA, you have to go to ACAS [I'm linking to ACAS because I don't think my American readers will know what it is - TB] It takes a lot of months. You can be banned for the whole period if it’s not done in a proper way.

Owch. I think Wenger is trying to express a level of frustration with the way this whole deal is going down — and rightly so. Hleb is under contract. It is unfathomable that a person who has contracted his services for a specific period of time would go to a secret meeting with a competitor to talk about switching allegiances THE DAY BEFORE A PIVOTAL COMPETITION.

If I had a strong dislike of Hleb before I’ll be extra pissed if he tries to pull a Webster. It’s not that I want him to stay, I don’t. It’s just that I think the team deserve to get a fair transfer fee from him. Arsenal and Arsene had faith in him when the wolves were calling for him to be dropped. Arsene stuck with him and developed him and really gave the man a platform on which he could showcase his talents and thus command respect and interest from other teams. Arsenal deserve a big payday if Hleb leaves and I fully support the team pursuing that payday through the legal system.

Don’t get me wrong, Hleb won’t be with Arsenal next season. I don’t get the sense that Wenger has much respect for the man after what he pulled in Milan and his respect will drop to zero if he tries to screw the team out of a fair transfer fee. And that’s exactly what the Webster clause will do; screw the team out of money. Money that could be used to buy players. So, I think what Arsene is trying to do is get fair market value for Hleb, and, again, I fully support the team in this. Someone needs to challenge this Webster clause, Arsenal might as well do it; they break new ground everywhere else, why not in contract talks?

In other team news, Rosicky is ruled out for Euro 2008. Which sucks, but maybe the player will come back bigger and stronger. Like maybe they can tighten that ligament and he can start shooting shots from 50 yards out? He’ll be a secret weapon!

Anyway, that’s your lot for today. I’ve been out of the loop for the last few days because baby and mommy are in the hospital still and I didn’t have my laptop with me. Now I do and I’ll be back now stronger than ever, like Rosicky.

It’s all breaking apart?

“Hey, who wants to go for an ice cream?”

As you by now, no doubt, have read Alex Hleb’s agent has had his say and he wants Alex to move, preferably to Inter because they have the best ice cream in all of Europe.  You probably have also seen this story about Adebayor wanting £80,000/wk or “he’s leaving too.”

The ship is obviously falling apart folks.  What we need is someone to hold us together.  Someone who’s able to pay all these salary demands out of the kindness of his heart, someone who has a soul steeped in the history of Arsenal, someone who loves Arsenal and us supporters, someone who will hold us in the dark and scary nights ahead.

All that could be solved if the club were to accept the help of Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov, but chairman Peter Hill-Wood and director Danny Fiszman say no.

YES!

OUT WITH PETER HILL WOOD!  OUT WITH DANNY FISZMAN!  WHAT DO THEY KNOW ABOUT ARSENAL???

The “Adebayor £80,000″ story is one of the worst stories I have ever seen written.  Who wrote that? Neil Ashton.  Neil, that “story” was worse than most blogs.  You got Adebayor, Usmanov, and Chelsea all jumbled up in there.  Thierry Henry even makes an appearance, for God’s sake!   Focus!  Focus Neil!  You can do it, you no talent ass-clown.

The Hleb stories are more widely spread and that’s because Hleb’s agent actually said something.  Something verifiable, something real:

He (Helb) is leaving Arsenal even though they want to offer him a new long-term contract and better conditions. Only time will tell if leaving is the right decision, but there’s no way back now. Everything will be cleared up in the next two weeks.

Wenger moved quickly to squash the rumors and remind everyone that regardless of whether the Agent wants the player to move, only Arsenal and the player can make that decision.

You cannot stop people talking but at the moment there is nothing (to discuss)

That’s it.  End of story.  Agents will talk, be prepared for it this summer, especially since the press seem to have seized upon the “Arsenal in Player Crisis” story line.  At any given moment this summer, every player at the club will be rumored to leave, from Cesc to Keiran Gibbs; no player will be left unscathed.  The British tabloids have a job to do and nothing sells papers quite like seeing a “top four club in crisis.”  Add in some stories about Usmanov’s summer takeover bid (which can’t happen but they’ll report on it anyway!!) and it should be a summer of utter shite from the press.

I recommend a summer of playing a lot of football, if you can.  My Achilles is almost healed and I should be out and about in June.

Now, back to Hleb for a second…  You don’t know this because I didn’t blog last year, but I hated Hleb last year.  I mean viscerally hated the man.  I tried to justify this hatred by counting the number of times he turned the ball over in one game.  I think he had something like 13 turnovers before I lost interest. Never mind that I’m not an official statistician, the point is I hated him.

Hleb did a good job of changing my mind about his abilities this season.  He’ is a hell of a dribbler, and a hell of a passer, especially in close quarters, and when he’s slotted in the center of the pitch, he’s a magician with the ball.  But isn’t that the problem?  Cesc plays in that spot and unless Hleb is scoring goals, he’s not a proper striker, so playing him behind Adebayor and ahead of Cesc is a bit of a waste isn’t it?

I think the player knows all this.  I think he is intent on playing in Cesc’s spot and, well, that’s just not going to happen.  Not in England.  Hleb’s too slight to play central midfield in England.  So, Wenger had to either put him on the wing (when is the last time you saw Hleb put in a proper wing cross?) or put him in that strange support striker role.  So, I can see that the player would be upset and wanting a move.

I’d like to see him stay.  He could make a great super-sub; you know, club’s down a goal and they need another attacking option, put Hleb on.  He’s not going to shoot, but he’s going to stretch and confound denfenses and sometimes that will lead to goals.

But do you see Hleb playing the part of “super-sub?”  Me either.  Enjoy the Gelatto, Hleb, I just hope Arsenal gets a decent transfer fee for him in return.

Kinda rushed, sorry about that, expect more good stuff tomorrow.  See you then.

Aveline Marie

I don’t care if King Kong himself took a huge dump on both Chelsea and Man U there won’t be a blog today because today my girlfriend delivered our 7lb 13oz baby girl; Aveline Marie.

Welcome little Gooner!

Say ‘what?’ one more time…

The foreigners are taking over and may God forgive them if they can’t speak English or if there are too many of them in any one place.

Yes, your lovely Premiership is being overrun by the Godless foreign hordes: Brazilians-cum-Croats, African francophones, Russians, Berbatovians, Ukrainians, Americans, the Irish, and worst of all… the French. Sepp Blatter is having none of it, the English Immigration folks are having none of it, and I’m left scratching my head wondering what color the sky is in their world.

As many of you already know, I have been steadfastly against Sepp’s attempted interventions because I think they are 100% wrongheaded. He starts with the claim that he wants to address the inequality in football

Shall we let the rich become richer and say nothing? The big money is coming out of the Champions League - it’s the biggest league in the world and practically 80% of the income goes directly to the 32 participating clubs

Quotas won’t do anything but put higher premiums on players who already command outrageous sums; if you think English players are overpriced now, wait until Arsenal, Man U, and Liverpool have to have 6 a side. In that system, mediocre players like Pennant would be worth probably £40m (Shaun Wright-Phillips commanded £30m BEFORE the quotas and he doesn’t even play). And Sepp is asking for 6 a side — 6 Players of national origin in each club. You want to tear down the “rich get richer” problem in football, by making English footballers command a premium?

After an initial period where top English talent would gravitate toward the top four clubs, those clubs would start spending huge resources signing English children and scouring the English countryside for potential signings. Oddly enough, a few months ago, Platini was looking to protect the children from being transferred from club to club. Under Sepp’s proposed system, transfers of minors and minors signing contracts would be increased dramatically. In fact, clubs would have to ask for greater protection of their youth academies if the “6 a side” rule were to take effect because otherwise English players turning 16 would be able to just leave their academy and sign huge contacts at the top clubs. Sepp’s plan would, in essence, give extraordinary power to 16 years olds and their agents.

Instead of breaking the stranglehold of the top four, Sepp would concentrate their power; by making English players a premium product, only the teams with the largest stadiums and biggest operating budgets could afford them. Take Man City and Micah Richards as an example. Micah would not be playing for City right now if this rule was in effect, he would be somewhere where they could afford to pay him double what he’s worth simply because he’s got the right passport. That means that City would have to field a lesser Center Back, which weakens City and strengthens whoever Richards went to.

That doesn’t seem to alleviate the “rich get richer” problem, does it?

What’s even weirder about Blatter’s extraordinary death grip on this concept is that he’s overt about it being about “national pride.” Wait… what?

This rule will be fighting against the monopolies of clubs and leagues. But we are not fighting the problem of money but for the identity of national teams.

So, all you English fans who think that the Welsh, Scots, Irish, and the Northern Irish would count toward this quota you’re dead wrong, because Sepp Blatter wants to bring back nationalism and he makes no bones about about it. He attacks players (especially Brazilians) who “switch” nationalities and wants to ban that stuff too.

After only a two-year period, a player can receive nationality from another country and there is a danger that in 2014 half the players in the World Cup could come from Brazil!

This old thinking is really distasteful to me. Nationalism as a concept has been thoroughly discredited. If Sepp Blatter wants to hold onto an idea that died in 1945, then more power to him. But he should be relegated to the fringe of ideas. The world has changed irrevocably in the last century and we need LESS nationalism and not more. We need more freedom to move from place to place, not less. We need fewer boundaries on the exchange of culture and ideas, not fewer.

Shame on you Sepp Blatter for making this about nationalism. I’m an American who loves English football and if I support any national team, it’s France. According to Sepp, I’m part of the problem. I should be supporting some crappy team here in Tacoma and supporting Team U.S.A. Why? Because I happened to be born here? That’s the dumbest idea ever.

I love going to England to see Arsenal and the only thing that will stop that is if people like Sepp Blatter start making the beautiful game into something ugly, small and provincial. Thankfully, the EU and UEFA have promised not to let it happen.

Until tomorrow.

…Orange you glad I didn’t say “Usmanov?”

Turns out Manchester United’s owner is a huge liar. Remember back in January, when ManU made the announcement that they were one of the most “profitable” teams in the history of the English Premier League? Well… they may have left a few numbers out of their calculations: £666 million numbers to be exact.

That’s the total debt that the Glazers have piled onto the club in order to acquire it. I’ll say that again, because I think it might be mildly important. “In order to acquire it.” Not to build the stadium. Not to invest in a youth program. Not to invest in the business at all. That is the money that Malcolm Glazer needed to borrow in order to buy the club.

I met a guy a few years ago. He was the proud new owner of a video rental store. I rented movies from him because he was close and cheap. (Kids: back in the old days, we used to rent movies recorded on magnetic tapes called “VHS Tapes” these “tapes” were rented by stores because we couldn’t download the movies, there was no video on demand, and there was nothing like Netflix) I think I was drunk one night and started chatting with the guy about how he was the only one ever working there and how did he get the money to open a business. A bit gosh, sure, but like I said I was drunk. Anyway, it came out that he had financed the whole business on credit cards.

Now, I’m no business guru and I’m sure that given a proper business model, one could use credit cards to open, run, and build a proper business. But you still have to take a strong look at any business that is so desperate for credit that they have to pay super high interest rates for someone to loan them money. Predictably, the Video Tape guy went out of business a few months later. I guess he’d forgotten that creditors eventually want their money back, or that at the very least you have to make the payments or they will cut you off. These creditors are smart like that sometimes.

If you read that article about Man U, there’s something in there that should send a chill down the spine of any supporter who’s club has been recently acquired through debt or who’s club is under threat of hostile takeover. It turns out that Man U owes £88m per year in interest payments but they are only able to pay £42m. The remainder of that money is being rolled into a high interest hedge fund, into which fans are paying 14% interest. Currently, that hedge fund is bloated to £152m and due to the global credit crunch, even United are unable to re-finance that fund into a lower rate. Maybe if they could make their payments they could get a lower interest rate, who knows.

I’m not saying that United is going to go out of business. I don’t know what’s going to happen to United. I do know that a lot of fans are either hiding their head right now or justifying the huge debts. I’ve even heard United fans say that they could simply “sell Ronaldo” and pay off the debt. Remember that video tape rental guy? Right before he went out of business, he sold all his video tapes. How are you supposed to stay in business if you sell all your assets?

Similarly, without Ronaldo how are you going to win trophies? How are you going to sell jersey’s? Ronaldo earns United money right now, you don’t sell your earnings, you get rid of your debt.

That’s where Arsenal comes into this story. Arsenal rang up something on the order of £300m in debt to build the new stadium. Unlike a hostile takeover, however, this new stadium is widely referred to as a “gold mine” for Arsenal as it has nearly doubled Arsenal’s gate receipts; Arsenal earn £3m per home match now. And there are some 41,000 people on the waiting list to get season tickets — season tickets which are the most expensive in the Premier League.  With these new revenues and such a large and loyal fan base, Arsenal are now also the fourth most profitable team in the world. So, Arsenal, the club, borrowed £300m in order to build an asset that will (hopefully) have a greater future return. That’s just smart business.

Once the Highbury redevelopment projects are completed, the debt on the new stadium will be paid down, and Arsenal will be the most profitable team in the world… hands down, no question about it. Which is why Arsenal have vultures circling Emirates stadium. Usmanov is currently paying double what other owners would be willing to pay for shares in Arsenal. The normal gate to share price is 1.5; Usmanov is paying 3.3 times gate in order to acquire the club. Why would he do that unless he saw a way to recoup that money? I’d say his willingness to pay such a high premium for Arsenal shares is proof that Arsenal’s board are on the right track as far as club finances.

The only problem, from a fan’s perspective, is that these are lean times. The world financial situation has been destabilized by a combination of war, a falling dollar, American lending deregulation, and speculative (foolhardy) lending and building practices. Arsenal is a global enterprise and global financial problems hit them just like all the other global businesses. Add in that the Highbury project is, essentially, a luxury condo project and you could see potential for troubling times ahead.

So, it should come as no surprise that the other day, Wenger and the club finally admitted that the transfer budget over the last few years has been slashed because of that stadium debt. Also, it should come as no surprise that Arsenal are rigidly adhering to their wage structure and thus Flamini’s departure was inevitable.

This is business 101 boys and girls. When times are lean, you keep your most valuable assets intact (Fabregas), and trim unnecessary spending (Flamini, Hleb). Despite their success in building a stadium that nearly doubles their revenue, unforeseen market forces are preventing Arsenal from fully paying that debt down at the moment. So, the board tightens the belt a little and we all have to ride out this downturn by paying more for shirts, seats, programs, television, and probably annual membership dues.

But whatever you do, you don’t panic and bust out the credit card just to put caviar on the table. I hear a lot of fans, long term fans, people I respect, saying that maybe Arsenal should trade in a few years of mid-table mediocrity for a trophy right now. I’ve heard people saying that maybe Arsenal should bring in a sugar daddy to help buy players. But I think that Man U should be a warning to us: in their case a “sugar daddy” came in and “bought” players by simply piling more debt on the team. Now, that same team can’t even make their debt payments and are rolling that debt into a larger debt that’s generating 14% interest. The “richest football club in the world” can’t pay the interest they owe on their debt?  Something is seriously wrong there.

It’s almost like some rich guy bought a football club with his credit card.

Arsenal fans should just hold on, trust Arsene Wenger, and enjoy the beautiful football. Who cares if we don’t win a trophy for 5 years? Being an Arsenal supporter isn’t about winning something today. Being an Arsenal supporter is about being part of something great, something historical, something that will always win out in the end. We don’t need Usmanov, he needs us.  Because without fans who are willing to accept a bleak future for a few shiny baubles in the trophy case today, vultures like Usmanov and Glazer can’t profit.

See you tomorrow.